As Vladimir Putin touches down in the Middle
East later on Wednesday for visits to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the Russian
leader is brimming with confidence that would have been unimaginable six
months ago.
A much-touted Ukrainian counteroffensive that was once expected to carve
through Russian lines has stalled, oil revenue is rebounding as Russia learns
to skirt Western sanctions, and a mutiny by Wagner mercenaries that once
threatened his hold on power has almost been forgotten.
“Putin has certainly been speaking more confidently now than any time since
the war began,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia
at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Russia’s front line has largely repelled Ukraine’s counter-offensive,
launched with billions of dollars worth of Western arms, and in Kyiv
President Volodymyr Zelensky and his top military commanders are now at odds
over whether the war has reached a stalemate.
In the West, support for bankrolling a third year of Ukraine’s defence is
already falling victim to political wrangling.
And at home, Russia’s energy revenues have recovered, anti-Kremlin dissent
has been silenced, and Putin is preparing to officially kick off his campaign
for presidential elections in March — a vote he is certain to win.
All that has fuelled a new sense of assurance in the Russian leader, analysts
say.
“Russia has had an exceptionally bad war, but is betting the farm on Western
apathy and a drawing down of support,” James Nixey, head of Chatham House’s
Russia and Eurasia programme, told AFP. “They might be right.”
– ‘Third World War’ –
Putin has long portrayed his invasion of Ukraine as just one front in a great
power struggle with the West — one he increasingly believes Moscow has the
stamina and resources to win.
“They believe in the Kremlin that the Third World War is already going on —
and that they are better prepared than others,” said Alexander Etkind, an
international relations scholar at the Central European University. “This
gives them a lot of excitement. Life is meaningful again.”
Moscow is set to portray Putin’s trip to Abu Dhabi and Riyadh — only his
third outside the former Soviet Union since he invaded Ukraine — as another
sign Russia has defied the West’s attempts to isolate it on the world stage.
And at home, too, Putin is stepping up his domestic appearances.
After cancelling last year’s mammoth end-of-year press conference and a
phone-in with Russian citizens amid simmering discontent over mobilisation,
he is set to hold the event next week.
He could use it to announce his formal intention to stand for re-election in
a vote that would extend his rule to 2030.
– ‘All to play for’ –
But experts warn that just as Putin’s fortunes have recovered in recent
months, they could turn downward again — especially on the battlefield.
“Both sides have had their ups and downs in this war, taken pieces of land
and had shock tactics that have worked. It’s still quite finely balanced. It
is still all to play for,” said Nixey.
Moreover, war fatigue is not unique to the West, said Gulnaz Sharafutdinova,
director of the Russia Institute at King’s College London.
“Despite showing economic and social resilience in the short term, the long-
term trends related to the militarisation of the economy are far from rosy,”
she said.
Inflation — a historic source of angst among the Russian population — is
rising fast as Moscow adopts what analysts have called a “military
Keynesianism”, pouring billions of resources into the war effort.
Sharafutdinova said the Kremlin should still be “on high alert” for a
possible backlash against the domestic sacrifices being made to support the
war.
Rumours persist that the Kremlin is set to announce a new round of unpopular
mobilisations after the election.
And the simmering discontent among the wives of men who have been drafted, as
well as anger at pardons for murderers and rapists who agree to fight in
Ukraine, have rattled the Kremlin in recent weeks.
But not enough to make Putin to change course.
“They will not stop,” said Etkind of the Kremlin’s strategy in Ukraine. “They
can only be stopped.” (BSS/AFP)
