China needs ‘ambitious’ climate goals to meet commitments: report

China should set a “strong but achievable” target of slashing emissions at least 30 percent by 2035 when it submits updated climate commitments in coming months, a report urged Thursday.

Signatories to the 2015 Paris climate accord must announce by next February their updated roadmaps to achieve the treaty’s goal of limiting global temperature rises.

China currently aims to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060.

But its policies and targets are rated “highly insufficient” to limit global warming to 1.5 Celcius above pre-industrial levels, according to the Climate Action Tracker project.

The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a think tank that tracks climate progress, said Beijing should aim for an absolute emissions reduction target of 30 percent.

As the world’s largest emitter, China’s “ambition in its climate agenda is decisive for keeping the international community on track,” CREA said in a report.

To meet that target, Beijing would need to slash electricity sector emissions by 30 percent and emissions from industry by a quarter.
It should also set a target of reducing non-CO2 emissions by more than 35 percent, the group said.

The cuts are substantial, but within reach given China’s significant progress on everything from renewable energy installation to electric vehicle uptake, said CREA’s Belinda Schaepe, lead author of the report.

“While this is an ambitious target as it requires substantial emission reductions across all major sectors, it is achievable if current trends in clean energy deployment continue and power demand remains constrained,” she told AFP.

This week, China’s Electricity Council said non-fossil energy accounted for 40 percent of the country’s power consumption, and its installed non-fossil energy generation has risen by nearly 80 percent from 2021.

But Teng Fei, deputy director of Tsinghua University’s Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, called the “extreme” goal of a 30 percent emissions cut “too ambitious to be achievable”.

“I think China is in the process of stabilising its emissions, so it’s quite uncertain, for this period, to what extent China can reduce its overall emissions,” he told AFP.

China is currently moving to bolster its flagging housing market, which could trigger higher demand in industry, and increase emissions.

And progress in other sectors remains uneven: coal installation is continuing in a bid to secure baseload supply, and methane emissions are also rising.

“We see a lot of significant progress in almost every sector, but the difficulty is how to coordinate,” said Teng.

China has not indicated when it might announce its new commitments.

Top US climate negotiator John Podesta visited Beijing in September for talks on climate policy cooperation ahead of UN climate talks in Azerbaijan in November. (BSS/AFP)